Personal Injury
Lost earnings capacity and household services analysis for personal injury plaintiffs.
Adrian R. Fleissig, Ph.D.
Economist and statistician focused on applied econometrics and forensic economic analysis.
At a Glance
- Joint Ph.D. in Economics and Statistics, North Carolina State University.
- Forensic economics practice since 2006, including senior economist engagements at RGL Forensics and Baker Tilly before joining Kelly Economics in 2024.
- 40+ peer-reviewed publications in econometrics, monetary economics, and applied economics.
- Advisory Board, Monetary Services Index project, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004–2011).
- Five-time recipient of the Outstanding University Researcher Award, CSU Fullerton (2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2018).
- Full Professor at CSU Fullerton since 2003.
Affiliation listed for identification purposes only. No university endorsement is implied.
Forensic Economics Focus
Dr. Fleissig combines doctoral training in both economics and statistics with nearly two decades of forensic practice. He provides economic-damages analysis and expert support for personal injury, wrongful death, employment, and commercial litigation.
Core Practice
Wrongful Death
Economic loss calculations for the estates of decedents in wrongful death actions.
Employment and Contract Disputes
Damages analysis for employment matters and contract breach claims.
Commercial Damages
Lost profits, business interruption, and economic harm in commercial disputes.
Additional Practice Areas
Property Tax and Real Estate Valuation
Economic and statistical analysis of property taxation and real estate damages.
Financial and Banking Disputes
Asset valuation and financial economics in commercial litigation.
Prior forensic practice: Senior Economist and Statistician, RGL Forensics (2006–2018); Senior Economist and Statistician (Consultant), Baker Tilly (2019–2021).
Academic Background
Education
Joint Ph.D. in Economics and Statistics, North Carolina State University, 1993.
Positions
- Full Professor of Economics, California State University, Fullerton (2003–present).
- Research Associate, Woods Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting, CSU Fullerton (1999–present).
- Research Associate, Center for Demographic Research, CSU Fullerton (2004–present).
- Research Associate, Social Science Research Center, CSU Fullerton (2005–present).
- Economist and Statistician, Kelly Economics, LLC (2024–present).
- Associate Professor, California State University, Fullerton (1999–2002).
- Assistant Professor, Saint Louis University (1996–1999).
Recognition
- Atlantic Economic Journal Best Article Award (2017), “Changing Trends in U.S. Alcohol Demand.”
- Advisory Board, Monetary Services Index project, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004–2011).
- Outstanding University Researcher Award, CSU Fullerton (2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2018).
- Invited Speaker, California State Assembly, Sacramento: analysis of a potential modification to Proposition 13 (2016).
- Guest Editor, Economic Modelling special issue on post-Brexit, risk measurement, and COVID-19 (2021–2022).
- Nominated, Carol Barnes Excellence in Teaching Award (2024–2025).
- Creator, Southern Californian Leading Indicator (2000–2023).
- World Ranking: top 1.4% of economists (World Rankings of Economists and Economic Departments, Coupe, 2001).
Research Areas
Econometrics and statistics, monetary economics, consumer demand analysis, economic forecasting, and regional economics. See the complete publications list.
Publications (Past 10 Years)
Per Fed. R. Civ. P. 26(a)(2)(B)(iv).
Binner, J.M., Fleissig, A.R., Swofford, J.L.. (2025). Are green, climate-change and corporate bonds substitutes or complements? Evidence from a Fourier specification. Economics Letters, 251, 112316.
We estimated elasticities for climate-change, green and corporate bonds. Consistent with demand theory, own-price elasticities are negative. These assets are generally substitutes, but exhibit some complementarity between climate-change and green bonds early in the sample. Thus, companies issuing bonds may want to issue both types of bonds allowing potential bond holders to diversify their portfolios. Climate-change and corporate bond budget elasticities generally exceed unity, while green bond budget elasticities are generally inelastic. These budget elasticities indicate that corporations should expect these markets to grow with economy.
Fleissig, A.R., Swofford, J.L.. (2025). The impact for UK real sector policy of imposing curvature restrictions on a normalized quadratic specification. Applied Economics, 1-18.
We estimate elasticities over time from UK services, non-durables, semi-durables and durables data that satisfy revealed preference conditions for consistency with a well-behaved utility function. When estimating a normalized quadratic reciprocal indirect utility specification, there were violations of curvature, so we also estimated a locally curvature restricted specification. Imposing curvature restrictions reduces but does not eliminate curvature violations. Both specifications produce negative own-price elasticities consistent with the theory of demand. Estimates find services and non-durables were inelastic while semi-durables and durables elastic in demand over the sample. There is relatively little substitution involving services and non-durables but typically elastic substitution between semi-durables and durables. Estimated expenditure elasticities from both specifications find services and non-durables inelastic necessities but elastic demands for semi-durables and durables. The estimates suggest fiscal policy will have a larger impact on expenditure elastic semi-durables and durables compared to inelastic services and nondurables. Monetary policy will have a bigger impact on interest-sensitive semi-durables and durable goods. The major difference is that the curvature restricted model typically significantly reduces variation in elasticity estimates over time. Our data included the Brexit and COVID-19 shocks and the imposition of curvature restrictions appear to smooth away important information from those shocks.
Fleissig, A.R., Jones, B.E.. (2024). UK household-sector money demand and Divisia monetary aggregates in the new millennium. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 28(1), 51-73.
We estimate elasticities of substitution between components of the Bank of England's household-sector UK Divisia monetary aggregate using quarterly data from 1999 to 2019, encompassing the period surrounding the global financial crisis. The demand system includes interest-bearing sight and time deposits at monetary financial institutions as components, since deposit data for banks (excluding mutuals) and for mutuals are no longer published separately. We find that the elasticities of substitution that relate to changes in the user cost of noninterest-bearing monetary assets imply inelastic substitution over all or almost all of the sample and, consequently, a conventional monetary aggregate would be a highly misleading economic indicator relative to a Divisia monetary aggregate.
Fleissig, A.R., Swofford, J.L.. (2023). The Impact of Brexit on UK Habits for Expenditure on Imports and Consumption. International Review of Economics and Finance, 88, 196-203.
Habit persistence for imported goods and imported services has important policy implications for economic shocks like Brexit. We find a moderate amount of habit persistence in U.K. imports. Habits for imported goods declines in the post-Brexit vote sample, suggesting that habits are already changing lowering Brexit transition costs for UK consumers. Habits for imported services change little. We find imported services are generally complementary, while imported goods tend to be substitutes, for most of the other types of expenditure. Long-run budget elasticities indicate despite Brexit the U.K. economy will become more outward looking over time.
Fleissig, A.R., Jones, B.E.. (2023). U.K. Household-Sector Money Demand during Brexit and the Pandemic. Economic Modelling, 123, 106234.
Conventional monetary aggregates assume perfect substitutability between monetary assets. We use monthly household-sector data to estimate two versions of the dynamic Fourier demand model to determine the degree of substitutability between U.K. monetary assets and find strong evidence against perfect substitution throughout our sample. Evidence of inelastic substitution is stronger after the 2008–09 recession and some elasticities of substitution are relatively low either following the Brexit vote or during the onset of the pandemic. Our results strongly support using Divisia monetary aggregates to gauge the effects of monetary policy in the U.K., since they do not impose any assumptions about substitutability. Annual growth rates of comparable household-sector Divisia and simple sum monetary aggregates had converged just before the start of the pandemic. Subsequently, money growth increased sharply and the simple sum increasingly understated the annual money growth rate compared to Divisia with the difference exceeding two percent by early 2021.
Fleissig, A.R., Jones, B.E., Darvas, Z.. (2023). Euro area monetary asset demand and Divisia aggregates. The European Journal of Finance, 29(16), 1885-1912.
Monetary asset user costs are functions of spreads between a benchmark rate of return and the own rates of return on the monetary assets. We analyze the impact of the benchmark rate on a Euro area Divisia M2 aggregate, on estimated elasticities of substitution, and on estimated impulse response functions. Substitution in response to changes in the user cost of M1 is generally elastic, but we find evidence of inelastic substitution along other dimensions. When a loan rate is used as the benchmark, substitution in response to changes in the user costs of the two components of M2-M1 is inelastic throughout the sample and the corresponding elasticity estimates are near their lowest levels during the pandemic. This is strong evidence that Divisia monetary aggregates are preferable to conventional monetary aggregates. Annual growth rates of simple sum and Divisia M2 monetary aggregates differ significantly in some periods, but not during the pandemic. Estimated impulse response functions using both Divisia and simple sum money measures indicate that money shocks have positive and statistically significant effects on real output. The response of the price level to a money shock tends to be more persistent when the models are estimated using Divisia aggregates.
Fleissig, A.R., Swofford, J.L.. (2023). Habit persistence in assets demand. Southern Economic Journal, 89(3), 975-985.
Habit persistence is examined for six asset demand categories using U.S. data and a dynamic forward-looking model. We find habit persistence is greater for more liquid assets compared to riskier assets and may in part explain low holdings of riskier assets. Cash assets are found to be substitutes with other liquid assets under habit formation. Consistent with portfolio analysis, the riskier asset categories of money market mutual funds and bonds are found to be complements in use. The three more risky asset categories have budget elasticities greater than unity indicating that in the long run consumers are more likely to turn to these assets as their wealth increases.
Fleissig, A.R.. (2022). Habit Persistence in Food Purchases. Applied Economics Letters, 29(11), 1033-1036.
Taxes are often imposed on sugary products to decrease consumption and thus lower obesity. Reducing purchases of food products may be difficult if they are habit forming and thus addictive. Food products may also be durable and provide service flows if individuals become satiated or stockpile goods. Estimates find sugar, sweets, cereals, and bakery products to be net habit forming and highly addictive. Meat and poultry are also highly habit-forming goods. Healthier substitutes like fresh fruits, vegetables, fish, and seafood have the lowest estimates of net habit formation and further highlight the difficulty of reducing obesity through encouraging a healthier diet.
Fleissig, A.R.. (2021). Habit Persistence in Tourist Sub-Industries. Journal of Applied Economics, 24(1), 103-113.
Habit persistence across six U.S. tourism sub-industries is estimated using a dynamic forward looking model. Estimates show that habits largely determine current expenditure for air transportation, shopping, accommodation, and other transportation. Estimated uncompensated price elasticities find that air transport and accommodation are price elastic in the short-run and long-run. Shopping is price inelastic in the short-run but price elastic in the long-run. An important result is that air transportation and other transportation are elastic substitutes for price changes in air transportation but inelastic substitutes for price changes in other related transportation. Estimates show that expenditure across most of the tourist sub-industries is closely related because they are gross complements. Food and beverages are necessities, price inelastic, and relatively unresponsive to changes in expenditure across the sub-industries. The estimates show that policy makers and tourist marketing should account for habit persistence and differences between the short-run and long-run.
Fleissig, A.R.. (2021). Estimating Elasticities of Substitution for Sin Goods. Applied Economics, 53(30), 3549-3561.
Own-price and cross-price elasticities of substitution are estimated for the six 'sin' goods of spirits, beer, wine, casino gambling and lotteries using aggregate U.S. quarterly national data. The own-price and cross-price elasticities of substitution are not constrained to be constant over the sample and are estimated using the Fourier flexible form. There is evidence of much variation in substitution over the sample, including during the recessions. All 'sin' goods, except lotteries, have inelastic demands. Beer and tobacco have the most inelastic demands which are consistent with the evidence that beer is the most popular type of spirit while tobacco products are often considered addictive commodities. The three types of alcohol of spirits, beer, and wine are Morishima cross-price substitutes. Casino gambling and lotteries are Morishima cross-price substitutes having an elastic response to price changes in casino gambling but have and inelastic response for price changes of lotteries. Estimates show that the remaining 'sin' goods are complements in use. Policy makers must consider how a tax on a 'sin' good will impact demand for the good partially based on its own-price elasticity of demand as well as the cross-price elasticity of substitution or complementarity relationships with other 'sin' goods.
Fleissig, A.R.. (2021). Expenditure and price elasticities for tourism sub-industries from the Fourier flexible form. Tourism Economics, 27(8), 1692-1706.
Tourism studies holding expenditure and price elasticities constant can produce misleading results. The Fourier flexible form provides estimates of expenditure and price elasticities over the business cycle. Results typically show considerable evidence of increased variation in expenditure and price elasticities over the business cycle and during the decline in overall tourism expenditure from 2001 to 2003 and from 2009 to 2011. Estimated own-price elasticities show that air transportation has the most elastic demand while food and beverage have an inelastic demand. Air transportation, shopping, and accommodation often have expenditure elasticities exceeding unity making them luxury goods during those periods. Results show that food and beverages are necessary goods. Estimated Morishima elasticities find air transportation and other transportation-related commodities are substitutes with the degree of substitution changing over time but are complementary in use with the remaining sub-industries. Marketing strategies from tourism agencies and governments should be flexible and respond to how consumers change expenditure over the business cycle.
Fleissig, A.R.. (2020). The Impact of Casino Gambling and Lotteries on Demand for Other 'Sin' Goods. Atlantic Economic Journal, 48(3), 327-338.
Public policy aimed at reducing consumption of tobacco or alcohol products often results in purchases of lower-taxed alternatives. Many studies find tobacco and alcohol to be habit-forming, so taxing these commodities often has little impact in reducing purchases. There is much evidence that different alcohol and tobacco products are either substitutes or complements in use but these studies exclude the impact of casino gambling and lotteries. This is surprising given the evidence of high returns for companies investing in all types of 'sin' goods. The demand for 'sin' goods is analyzed using both myopic and rational habit-forming models. Durability was found to be largest for wine and tobacco and lowest for casino gambling. Tobacco and beer were the most net habit-forming commodities. All 'sin' goods were net habit-forming in the rational model, but under myopic habit formation, spirits and wine were net durable goods. The research highlights the importance of including casino gambling and lotteries, which are typically excluded when estimating substitution or complementarity between 'sin' goods. Casino gambling and lotteries are both net habit-forming and are substitutes in use for each other. Imposing taxes to reduce the misuse of alcohol and tobacco products is likely to have some unintended consequences, such as increases in personal expenditure on casino gambling and lotteries.
Fleissig, A.R., Swofford, J.L.. (2020). The Demand for Assets Through a Low Interest Rate Environment. Applied Economics, 52(60), 6540-6551.
Asset demand is important in many areas of economics. To investigate this, we estimate a globally flexible dynamic Fourier asset demand specification and calculate Morishima elasticities of substitution for six asset categories for the U.S. This specification produces negative own price (user cost) elasticities. The Morishima elasticities show that each of the six asset groups is substitutes. These results suggest that monetary policy efficacy increases in recessions and support the Barnett Critique that central banks should not ignore substitution effects and portfolio adjustments among financial assets and Friedman and Schwartz's view that saving deposit assets should be included in money.
Fleissig, A.R.. (2020). The Impact of World War Two and Rationing on U.K. Expenditure in the Short and Long-Run. Journal of European Economic History, 49(3), 109-135.
World War Two, rationing, and shortages limited the amount of food and other goods available to households. The new welfare state of Clement Attlee's Labour Party and derationing were supposed to provide food and other consumption goods to meet the needs of households, but voters were dissatisfied. Churchill's Conservative Party, with a campaign promising to end rationing quickly, regained power. It is unclear how rationing affected households' expenditure adjustments in the short and long run. Our results show that income and own-price elasticities varied considerably in both the short and long run before, during and after the war. Varying elasticities provide insight into how households adjusted their expenditures over time. Food is typically an essential consumption item, but estimates show it was almost a luxury good during the war and in the postwar period. There is evidence that households were unable to make typical long-run desired expenditure adjustments during the war and for some time after it. Binding food rationing significantly affected spending on other goods and services. Rationing had a severe impact on household expenditures. The campaign to end rationing was pivotal in the Conservatives Party's landslide victory.
Anderson, R.G., Duca, J.V., Fleissig, A.R., Jones, B.E.. (2019). New Monetary Services (Divisia) Indexes for the post-war US. Journal of Financial Stability, 42, 3-17.
We construct Monetary Services (Divisia) Indexes at various levels of aggregation (the broadest of which is M4) from the late 1940s through 1967 employing methods designed to permit these historical series to be spliced to corresponding series currently published by the Center for Financial Stability (CFS), which begin in 1967. The annualized growth rate of our MSI M2 during 1947 to 1967 generally lies between the growth rates of conventional M1 and M2, while the growth rate of MSI M3 is below that of conventional M3 over the same period. Using spliced series, we find that the velocities of the MSI exhibit gradual upward trends from the late 1940s through 1978, with distinct upward shifts in the late 1970's and early 1980's, while the velocity of conventional M3 trends downward between 1953 and 1982. Using a Fourier demand model, we find elastic substitution between M1 and the non-M1 components of MSI M3 up to 1967, but inelastic substitution between bank and thrift deposits.
Fleissig, A.R.. (2018). Who Benefits Most from Property Assessment Taxes? Evidence from Los Angeles County. Applied Economics Letters, 25(20), 1471-1474.
Assessment caps on property taxes are often assumed to benefit affluent homeowners the most with little gains for low-income households. Quantile regression results for Los Angeles County show that on average effective property tax rates decrease by $1994 per year due to length of ownership in the 50th percentile because of California's Proposition 13 assessment cap. There is evidence of both horizontal and vertical inequity across the entire sample. Low-income households do benefit from California's assessment cap as they are typically infrequent movers but their effective tax rates decrease over time. However, the most affluent households by market value do not gain the most and there is no evidence of horizontal inequity for these homeowners. There is also no evidence of horizontal inequity for middle-income households. Property tax savings vary between $18,000 and $40,000, depending on the assessed value decile and percentage quantile.
Fleissig, A.R.. (2016). Changing Trends in U.S. Alcohol Demand. Atlantic Economic Journal, 44(3), 263-276.
This study uses the Fourier globally flexible functional form and shows that elasticities of substitution for beer, wine and spirits vary over time. Own-price elasticities show that demand for alcohol is inelastic. Estimates of cross-price elasticities show much variation over time between spirits, wine and beer. Cross-price elasticities between beer and wine are generally elastic. Evidence of asymmetric substitution involving beer with wine or spirits suggests alcohol expenditure depends on which product undergoes a price change, which is typically not the case for spirits and wine. Changes in the demand for alcohol over time have important implications for the effectiveness of policy aimed at reducing externalities associated with heavy drinking. Morishima elasticities of substitution have different magnitudes compared to the cross-price elasticities but similar trends.
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